Let me start by summarizing my opinion about political polls.
Many Americans, from media pundits and political commentators to keyboard jockeys on social media, obsess about the latest polls (mostly conducted for financial gain and reported as “news” by the media) and cite surveys as evidence.
Sorry, but polls are just snapshots of time. As if they were popularity contests.
The politically inclined tend to praise polls that support their views while denigrating or dismissing those that do not. You either don’t know this or you choose to ignore it.
Let’s now continue with an example.
According to the Fox News 2024 Presidential Election Tracking Poll, Joe Biden is the only candidate who can beat out Donald Trump, the former president, by just a percentage point.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis edged Biden by 4 points and former South Carolina Governor. Nikki Haley beats out the embattled President by four points.
Call it whatever you want, but the 2024 presidential election remains up for grabs. pic.twitter.com/Mr7tU02sIn
— MikesRight (@RealLibSmacker) October 13, 2023
Haley’s support has doubled in the latest Fox poll over the previous one.
Is Nikki Haley on the move? pic.twitter.com/R44ddxe2Ww
— MikesRight (@RealLibSmacker) October 13, 2023
Fox has more to offer:
In February, 37% of Democratic primary voters wanted to keep Joe Biden on as the party’s nominee. Now, 45% want him. A majority of 53% still prefer another candidate at the top.
The Republican primary voters have a more settled attitude, with 82% of them saying that they are satisfied with the candidates they chose.
The general election matchups in 2024 remain close. Biden has a 41% job approval rating, but his support is 45-49% in hypothetical head to heads against every Republican. He’s preferred to Trump by only 1 point. DeSantis is 2 points ahead of Biden, and Haley has 4 points more than him.
In the Fox News polls this year, Trump is the only Republican candidate to have performed worse than Biden.
The margin of error for each match-up means that no candidate is “winning” the poll.
Chris Anderson, a Democrat who surveys Fox News with Daron Shaw (a Republican), said about the latest results.
The pressure is on for a Biden-Trump matchup, and it keeps Democrats united. The pressure drops immediately if Republicans pick someone else than Trump. Some Democrats may even toy with supporting the Republicans.
Anderson’s observation wasn’t just important, it could be a sign of things to come.
Conclusion:
Voters who are ardent supporters of a candidate tend to dismiss or ignore the “anyone but” vote. I will simply remind you that the number of “anyone except Hillary” votes was a major factor in the 2016 presidential election.
You can draw whatever conclusions you want about the impact of a “anyone but vote” in 2024. But, in my opinion, the impact will be enormous. Let’s make sure we don’t mess it up.
