Despite the various Democrat “comeback” narratives that MSM and Very Online Left have tried to push for months Democrats are likely to lose their majority in Congress unless a miracle occurs. Joe Biden’s approval rating is still in the low to middle 40s, and Congressional generic voting favors the GOP.
One reason there has been so much talk about a “resurgence in support” for Democrats is the Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn Roe. Wade. This stirred up outrage amongst the Usual Suspects over who has the “right” of terminating the life of unborn children.
Soon after, Democrats saw some improvement in the polls. Some Republicans did not perform well in special and/or primary elections. The narrative that Democrats are on the “comeback track” emerged from this and is still a popular talking point.
Democrats have a problem. Most elections boil down to the economy. People who feel that they are doing well tend to vote for the party with the Oval Office. The outcome of the election for the president’s party is usually not good if those voters feel the pinch.
This has been the case for President Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Chuck Schumer, Majority Leader of the Senate, will be back for at least one year. Rising inflation and volatile job markets along with the supply-chain crisis, rising interest rates, and rising food prices have all made middle-class Americans very hard hit.
It is not surprising that less than a month before the election, the apparent shift in abortion as a major concern has vanished as Americans’ top concerns have returned to the same place they began – the economy. Nate Cohn, the chief political analyst at the New York Times, observed:
Over the last month or so, the issue environment has kept shifting toward the Republicans. Whether that continues — and whether it ultimately yields GOP polling gains — is one of the biggest questions as we head into the final stretch https://t.co/x0Z0jiIk92
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 28, 2022
There is pretty clearly a shift in the issue environment. Here, one example — interest in abortion is back down to pre-Dobbs levels on Google Searches, with the economy overtaking it. It’s quite a bit like the pre-Dobbs leak numbers pic.twitter.com/vcD3fzfuaV
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 28, 2022
Cohn stated that Google search trends were only one way to gauge voter priorities. However, this metric was important because it corresponded with pre-Dobbs polling trends.
The new Google trends numbers are very similar to the figures of spring when Republicans had the edge prior to the Dobbs ruling, Jan. 6 hearings, and before the F.B.I. investigation into Mr. Trump. An unusual event outside of the election helped to focus the electorate’s attention on a topic that was favorable for Democrats in all three cases. The electorate seems to be returning to the original set of issues, as the former galvanizing factors fade into the background.
The latest economic news is in an entirely different category. Another round of interest rate hikes and fears of another recession was triggered by a poor inflation report. Over the past month, the stock market has fallen significantly. This could be more than just a return to April’s politics: It could also signal a significant shift in the political climate at the national level.
Also, the rumors of a “Democratic Comeback” are exaggerated.
Republicans and other GOP supporters need to remember that anything could happen. As I mentioned earlier, the odds of Democrats doing well in November are against them. One pollster suggested that polls could be underestimating GOP support. If this is the case, there will be a greater chance of a red tsunami.
