CNN usually has their tired pablum about the Capitol Riot, Republicans supposedly being a threat to America, Americans having it better than they think, Joe Biden allegedly putting us “back on the right path”, etc.
However, every now and again, reality takes over the cable news network. On Wednesday, CNN senior data reporter Harry Enten explained how current polling trends show that Democrats are likely underestimating the expected November red wave for Republicans. Enten was referring to historical patterns in the GOP’s midterm elections, where there has been a Democratic president.
Tapper, who was very unhappy about the polling showing a red tide coming, asked Enten if the data might be underestimating the outlook.
Enten said that Tapper’s answer was disappointing and that any underestimating was likely to be for Republicans.
“So, if it were to actually say, OK. If we think it’s underestimating one side, then I would think that it would be underestimating Republicans. Here’s why. Let’s take a look at how the July 27 House polling compares to the November national vote in midterm cycles with a Democratic president. We’ll go back as far as 1994. We see some blue here. There were some Democratic leads in 1994 and 1998. The tie was in 1998. Republicans plus three.
Take a look at the November results. In each of these years, the Republicans outperformed the July polling in November and the average shift between the July polling and the November result was six points for Republicans. What could it be? You can see the shift in party ID margin here. This is because not all registered voters were interested, but only their actual midterm voters. If we look at every election with a Democratic President since 1978, there has been an increase in party margin, party identification margin, and more Republican turnout than what the actual registered voters in midterm elections are when there is a Democratic President.
Tapper asked, “So Democrats should look at November in sheer terror?”
Enten explained it to him as gently and as quickly as possible.
Enten replied, “I wouldn’t be a fan of what’s happening in November if i were a Democrat. And I had a crystal ball.” “We can look at the straight history. The White House Party has lost four or more House seats since 1870. The White House Party has lost four seats or more 35 times out of 38 times.
Enten pointed out that the only instance it didn’t happen was when the president had high approval ratings going into the midterms.
Enten stated, “And the only times they didn’t lose four or more seats in polling history, 1998 and 2002,” Enten explained. Jake, Joe Biden’s approval rating is currently just 38 percent. It’s not like the years before.
This is the way Democrats put the “ow” in “ouch”, y’all. Watch:
Back in June, Enten also analyzed the primary turnout numbers for Republicans versus Democrats for this election cycle versus the one in 2018 and found that Republicans were way up (by double digits) in comparison to the Democratic turnout, which was down. “You know something’s cooking,” he observed about Republican turnout:
CNN’s Harry Enten: Republican primary turnout is up by 29% compared to 2018 — while Democrat turnout is down.
“Whenever you see a rise like that, you know something’s cooking.” pic.twitter.com/4yFvPpI4jG
— RNC Research (@RNCResearch) June 23, 2022
It’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which Democrats could make it to the top despite the news of the recession and the continuing rise of inflation, as well as rising interest rates.
It’s not just stormy weather for Democrats, it seems like a political tsunami is coming upon them. They only have to be responsible.