The generic ballot tracker can be a good indicator of where the next election is headed. If a poll that was dropped today shows any indication, it seems like Republicans are regaining their advantage.
According to a new NBC News poll, Republicans have a 47-45 advantage over Democrats in a question asking voters who they would prefer to see in control of Congress. This 2-point lead gives the GOP a 0.2 percent advantage over Democrats according to the RealClearPolitics rolling median. It’s the first time that Republicans have surpassed Democrats in one week.
RCP charts reveal that after August 8, GOP numbers on the generic ballot began to fall. This suggests that the raid at Mar-a-Lago might have been a factor in the decline. It is worth noting, however, that Democrats’ numbers on the generic ballot also began to fall around this date. They did not surpass the GOP’s numbers until one week later.
Both parties appear to be at their lowest point heading into this weekend. However, the NBC News poll suggests that the GOP may be on the rebound.
If the Mar-a-Lago raid was a factor, then judging from those numbers, Americans grew tired of both sides and their reactions. The raid itself was not in the news for more than a week. After that, it was all business as usual. The Democrats were able to sign their climate initiative within a week, while the GOP was unable to do so.
The American voter’s attention span is limited and soon it returns to the things that make families most anxious: inflation and the economy.
Voters are losing faith that the Democrats will take this issue seriously, as the Biden administration is promoting their “climate bill” while ignoring inflation. With the Democrats talking about electric cars but ignoring the issues directly before the voters, they are now turning their backs on the GOP.
This is only one poll. While it will be interesting to see whether this trend continues, I believe it will remain relatively constant. We are also approaching the season when votes start to get baked in. The Democrats have very little time to change their course. They’ve already made their fundamental energy policy change, with no consequences, and they will not be changing it.
Notice how quiet Joe Manchin suddenly became.
Democrats did not gain a permanent bump from Roe v. Wade’s overturning. The Democrats didn’t get a permanent bump from the raid at Mar-a-Lago. The Democrats didn’t get a permanent boost from the climate change bill.
The Democrats don’t seem to be ignoring voters. They know that voters will come back to them so they tried to pass one more major policy before Republicans could stop it. You can see that the voters are tired of it.
It’s likely that the GOP’s numbers will grow faster than those of the Democrats, which I believe is quite probable. The time will tell, but Democrats have made it a point of being as out-of-touch as possible.
