In the most recent Cook Political Report, Democrats made gains in seven House races. This was more than the three races that went in favor of the Republicans.
The majority of the shifts were in races where both parties had an edge. However, the Democrats managed two toss up races in their favor, while the Republicans couldn’t move one toss up race their way.
The Cook Political Report stated that “a pattern has begun to emerge”: In surveys by both sides, House Democrats’ polling numbers are holding strong in states with contentious state races driving turnout, Arizona Kansas, Michigan Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
California’s 9th Congressional district, Florida’s 27th, Illinois’s 6th and 7th districts, Iowa’s 1st, Iowa’s 2nd Districts, Michigan’s 8th, Nevada’s 4th, and Pennsylvania’s 7th districts were some of the races that favored Democrats.
Only the 8th and 4th districts of Michigan were initially toss-ups. All other races had previously been leaning in favor of the Democrats and received stronger ratings.
Florida’s 7th and Texas’s 15th districts, as well as Texas’s 34th district, shifted in favor of Republicans.
The Cook Political Report’s dramatic race changes follow the election forecaster’s declaration that Pennsylvania’s closely watched Senate race is a “tossup”, as polling tightens between Lt. Gov. Dr. Mehmet O and Dr. Mehmet Oz. John Fetterman.
The Cook Political Report estimates that there is a total of 30 races for House seats, with 20 being held by Democrats and 10 by Republicans.
Given the number of issues that are threatening the Democrats, Republicans are strongly favored to win control of the House. FiveThirtyEight reports that the GOP has 69% chance to capture the lower chamber. However, Democrats are still the favourite to win the Senate.