Does More Guns Equal Less Crime in Brazil?


You might not need a firearm on any given day. If you do need a gun, then nothing else will work. In these virtual pages, my colleague has chronicled many successful self-defense incidents by legal gun owners. I am sure he’ll continue to do so.

Brazil has also learned this lesson.

Researchers in Brazil say that the number of violent death in Brazil last year was the lowest in over a decade. This has puzzled some experts because the number of guns in circulation in recent years in Brazil has increased dramatically.

A report released Thursday by an independent group tracking crimes, the Brazilian Forum on Public Safety (BFPS), said that in 2022 there were 47,500 slain people in Latin America’s biggest nation. The Brazilian Forum on Public Safety’s statistics are used widely as a benchmark since there are no national statistics.

The number of deaths in 2022 decreased by 2.4% compared to the previous year but remained at a level similar to that recorded since 2019. Brazil’s violent death rate was last lower in 2011 when 47,215 people were killed.

Many public security experts are puzzled by the drop in homicides, which has coincided with a dramatic increase in firearms owned by Brazilians. Several studies suggest that the more guns in circulation, the more homicides.

During the 2019-2022 period, former President Jair Bolsonaro loosened regulations regarding gun ownership. In 2022, the number of firearms that were registered with the Federal Police was 1.5 million. This is a 47.5% increase from 2019.

Brazil is still violent.

She said, “Even though homicides are not increasing, the percentage of deaths caused by firearms is still high in Brazil.” According to the report released on Thursday, firearms accounted for 77% of all homicides in 2013. Ricardo stated that this is higher than the global average of 44%.

Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, Brazil’s leftist president, is working to reverse President Bolsonaro‚Äôs loosening gun laws. The theory that more firearms = less crime is being tested in Brazil. Dr. John Lott is the author of the book with the same name and is betting on the outcome.

Dan Webster, a professor at Johns Hopkins University, stated in an article in the Washington Post in December that “every one percent increase in gun ownership in Brazil is associated with 0.6 percent increases in the overall homicide rate.”

John Lott is an economist and academic at the Crime Prevention Research Center. He has been researching and arguing for years that increased firearm ownership doesn’t mean more crime. Webster’s comment in December partially inspired him to take part in a bet challenge with other gun and crime researchers.

Lott said to Fox News Digital, “How can someone tell the Washington Post that this is the relationship he thinks it is with a straight-faced?” “Nobody called him on it. “It was when I saw his statement published in the Washington Post that made me go out and place the bets.”

Lott told reporters that he had contacted 12 American academics earlier this year to make a wager: $1,000 on the likelihood of an increase in homicides in Brazil as a result of Lula’s crackdown on gun ownership.

Here’s what I have to offer. We’ll bet $1000 on whether Brazil’s homicide rates will increase or decrease during the first two years of Lula’s presidential term. If the homicide rates go down from 2022 I will pay $1,000. If it increases, I will pay you $1,000″, Lott wrote to his fellow academics in emails that were made available to Fox News Digital.

On the basis of similar trends elsewhere and the trend in Brazil under Bolsonaro’s presidency, it is likely that Dr. Lott was right.

It is difficult to compare trends between nations. Americans who are anti-gun often compare their country to Japan, where crime is low and gun ownership is strictly restricted. It’s a lie. Japan is very different from the United States. Japan has a history of politeness and respect for authority. Americans, on the other hand, are ethnically and racially diverse and have a history of conflict.

This trend in Brazil may be interesting and it will be fascinating to see what happens next, but for gun owners in the United States, this is not a strong argument to retain our right to keep and bear arms. Brazil is a place with a history of high crime and danger. The country is at the opposite end of the spectrum to Japan and comparisons with either place don’t tell Americans much. As always, the Constitution is our strongest argument. It’s an advantage that we have in comparison to other countries.

You might not even need a firearm on any given day. If you do need a gun, then nothing else will work. No matter what happens in Brazil, we will continue to fight for the right to own a firearm when needed.