Elon Musk, SpaceX’s founder and CEO, posted on Saturday that “the first Starships will launch in two years when the Earth-Mars transfer windows open.” These will be uncrewed to test whether they can land intact on Mars. If the landings are successful, then crewed flights will begin in four years.
The flight rate will increase exponentially, and the city should be self-sustaining in 20 years.
In two years, the first Starship will land on Mars. It will take two more years before the first human can land on Mars.
This is a very ambitious project, but it does have some caveats. Starship is an experimental rocket, bigger and stronger than Saturn 5, but fully reusable. In two years, a fleet of Starships could be on the way to Mars. The Apollo program would look like a leisurely walk.
Second caveat: SpaceX can only hit the 2028 window for a manned flight if it hits the 2026 launch window first, and “if these landings go well.”
I don’t say it’s impossible but… wow. This guy is a realist, and I’m not sure if it’s impossible or even close.
The way things are going on Earth, you might want to speed this up
— CatoTheYounger (@catoletters) September 8, 2024
Starships will be so inexpensive to build and fly, or at least it will become eventually, that they open up a world of possibilities currently only science fiction.
Astrophysicist Peter Hague proposed sending fleets at a single time of five Starships towards Mars, but only one is equipped with the shielding needed to land on Mars or return to Earth. The first Starship would be the one that everyone would land on, and the others could serve as a logistics hub or space station. As needed, future flights could add more Starships.
In his thread at X, you can learn more about Hague’s ideas. They may seem crazy now but they could become standard in a decade.
My advice, if you want to know what Musk wants to achieve, is to take his timelines with a very large grain of salt. It could cause a cardiac arrest.
Hey, I’ve seen this one pic.twitter.com/Mo05J0EN4y
— Jakub Wiech (@jakubwiech) September 7, 2024
Look at that date. Starship’s initial flight to Mars had been hoped for this year and not 2026.
Tesla’s full self-driving mode was just around the corner for years. Falcon 9 was years behind schedule before it became a record-breaking, price-shattering success. The last Musk project that I can recall was the Crew Dragon capsule. Crew Dragon is an offshoot of the Dragon cargo capsule, a proven design based on a concept that has been around for 50 years.
(What’s Boeing’s excuse about Starliner? But I digress.)
SpaceX, if it can meet Musk’s ambitious goals, will not only beat NASA and China to Mars by many years – if they don’t even reach a decade – but also get there at least one or two years before any other human sets foot on the Moon.
I’m dubious. I’m hopeful but very, very skeptical.
