Donald Trump is 36 points ahead of Florida Governor Rick Scott in the polls. Ron DeSantis won Iowa by a margin of 58-22. Former South Carolina Governor. Nikki Haley, UN Ambassador and third-place finisher in Hawkeye State comes in at 13%.
Iowa’s caucuses will be held less than one month from now, on January 15. Trump has been the presumptive winner of the Iowa caucuses for nearly four months.
New Hampshire has a very different culture. Granite State voters are independent, and have, for the past 50 years, ignored polls to make their judgments about candidates. New Hampshire voters tend to be more moderate than other GOP supporters.
Trump is still in the lead with a little over a month left before New Hampshire’s primary. Nikki Haley has consolidated the anti-Trump vote in New Hampshire, something she’s not been able to do anywhere else except her home state South Carolina.
According to a CBS/YouGov survey, Trump is leading Haley by 44%-29%. Haley has seen a dramatic increase in support since September when she received less than 10% of the vote.
Jim Merrill, a Republican strategist, said: “I will be the first to admit that Donald Trump is still the overwhelming favorite to become the Republican nominee.” “There’s no question about it. There are still several variables to play out, both in the early stages and with external events that nobody can control.
Trump is a huge leader in fundraising, organizational strength, and his ability to attract free media coverage. He only has to say something outrageous, which he knows is going to get the left-wing press’s blood boiling, and he will dominate the news cycle.
Haley may be gaining ground in New Hampshire but she is far behind in all other states except South Carolina. Haley has a slim chance to derail the Trump campaign if she wins New Hampshire.
Even a close second place won’t do. Haley must win early and New Hampshire is her best shot. The Nevada caucuses are sandwiched between the South Carolina and New Hampshire primaries. If Haley can close the gap on Trump and win in New Hampshire, then the race will take on a completely different perspective.
Donald Trump has risen above the GOP field of candidates by separating himself from the others. He will not debate the GOP primary candidates, and he seldom mentions them by their names. If Haley wins in New Hampshire, that could all change. Haley’s question is, “What comes next?”
The Hill:
Tom Rath argued, as a former New Hampshire Attorney General, that Haley’s campaign should explain what happens after the Granite State. He expressed uncertainty over how she would perform in South Carolina, her home state.
Rath stated, “I believe at some point, they will need to show, either through data, or, you’ll know, in conversations with people like you, that ‘Here is where we are going next, and here’s what we’re doing,'”.
Haley’s campaign believes that the next phase in the race will be a two-person matchup between Trump and her in South Carolina.
Haley’s prospects are the subject of esoteric discussion among political savants who have grown bored with Trump-Biden and don’t wish to write anymore. Could it happen? It’s possible. Stranger things have happened in politics during our lifetime. Remember President Dean? Remember President Dean?
Haley’s chances are slim. If candidates were to pay attention to the probabilities, history in the United States might have been very different.
